On the market impact of wind energy forecasts

This paper presents an analysis of how day-ahead electricity spot prices are affected by day-ahead wind power forecasts. Demonstration of this relationship is given as a test case for the Western Danish price area of the Nord Pool’s Elspot market. Impact on the average price behaviour is investigated as well as that on the distributional properties of the price. By using a non-parametric regression model to assess the effects of wind power forecasts on the average behaviour, the non-linearities and time variations in the relationship are captured well and the effects are shown to be quite substantial. Furthermore, by evaluating the distributional properties of the spot prices under different scenarios, the impact of the wind power forecasts on the price distribution is proved to be considerable. The conditional price distribution is moreover shown to be non-Gaussian. This implies that forecasting models for electricity spot prices for which parameters are estimated by a least squares techniques will not have Gaussian residuals. Hence the widespread assumption of Gaussian residuals from electricity spot price models is shown to be inadequate for these model types. The revealed effects are likely to be observable and qualitatively similar in other day-ahead electricity markets significantly penetrated by wind power

A boundary stress tensor for higher-derivative gravity in AdS and Lifshitz backgrounds

We investigate the Brown-York stress tensor for curvature-squared theories. This requires a generalized Gibbons-Hawking term in order to establish a well-posed variational principle, which is achieved in a universal way by reducing the number of derivatives through the introduction of an auxiliary tensor field. We examine the boundary stress tensor thus defined for the special case of `massive gravity' in three dimensions, which augments the Einstein-Hilbert term by a particular curvature-squared term. It is shown that one obtains finite results for physical parameters on AdS upon adding a `boundary cosmological constant' as a counterterm, which vanishes at the so-called chiral point. We derive known and new results, like the value of the central charges or the mass of black hole solutions, thereby confirming our prescription for the computation of the stress tensor. Finally, we inspect recently constructed Lifshitz vacua and a new black hole solution that is asymptotically Lifshitz, and we propose a novel and covariant counterterm for this case.Comment: 25 pages, 1 figure; v2: minor corrections, references added, to appear in JHE

A Community-Based Study of Factors Associated with Continuing Transmission of Lymphatic Filariasis in Leogane, Haiti

Seven rounds of mass drug administration (MDA) have been administered in Leogane, Haiti, an area hyperendemic for lymphatic filariasis (LF). Sentinel site surveys showed that the prevalence of microfilaremia was reduced to <1% from levels as high as 15.5%, suggesting that transmission had been reduced. A separate 30-cluster survey of 2- to 4-year-old children was conducted to determine if MDA interrupted transmission. Antigen and antifilarial antibody prevalence were 14.3% and 19.7%, respectively. Follow-up surveys were done in 6 villages, including those selected for the cluster survey, to assess risk factors related to continued LF transmission and to pinpoint hotspots of transmission. One hundred houses were mapped in each village using GPS-enabled PDAs, and then 30 houses and 10 alternates were chosen for testing. All individuals in selected houses were asked to participate in a short survey about participation in MDA, history of residence in Leogane and general knowledge of LF. Survey teams returned to the houses at night to collect blood for antigen testing, microfilaremia and Bm14 antibody testing and collected mosquitoes from these communities in parallel. Antigen prevalence was highly variable among the 6 villages, with the highest being 38.2% (Dampus) and the lowest being 2.9% (Corail Lemaire); overall antigen prevalence was 18.5%. Initial cluster surveys of 2- to 4-year-old children were not related to community antigen prevalence. Nearest neighbor analysis found evidence of clustering of infection suggesting that LF infection was focal in distribution. Antigen prevalence among individuals who were systematically noncompliant with the MDAs, i.e. they had never participated, was significantly higher than among compliant individuals (p<0.05). A logistic regression model found that of the factors examined for association with infection, only noncompliance was significantly associated with infection. Thus, continuing transmission of LF seems to be linked to rates of systematic noncompliance

Whole-genome SNP association analysis of reproduction traits in the Finnish Landrace pig breed

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Good genetic progress for pig reproduction traits has been achieved using a quantitative genetics-based multi-trait BLUP evaluation system. At present, whole-genome single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP) panels provide a new tool for pig selection. The purpose of this study was to identify SNP associated with reproduction traits in the Finnish Landrace pig breed using the Illumina PorcineSNP60 BeadChip.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Association of each SNP with different traits was tested with a weighted linear model, using SNP genotype as a covariate and animal as a random variable. Deregressed estimated breeding values of the progeny tested boars were used as the dependent variable and weights were based on their reliabilities. Statistical significance of the associations was based on Bonferroni-corrected <it>P</it>-values.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Deregressed estimated breeding values were available for 328 genotyped boars. Of the 62 163 SNP in the chip, 57 868 SNP had a call rate > 0.9 and 7 632 SNP were monomorphic. Statistically significant results (<it>P</it>-value < 2.0E-06) were obtained for total number of piglets born in first and later parities and piglet mortality between birth and weaning in later parity, and suggestive associations (<it>P</it>-value < 4.0E-06) for piglet mortality between birth and weaning in first parity, number of stillborn piglets in later parity, first farrowing interval and second farrowing interval. Two of the statistically significant regions for total number of piglets born in first and later parities are located on chromosome 9 around 95 and 79 Mb. The estimated SNP effect in these regions was approximately one piglet between the two homozygote classes. By combining the two most significant SNP in these regions, favourable double homozygote animals are expected to have 1.3 piglets (<it>P</it>-value = 1.69E-08) more than unfavourable double homozygote animals. A region on chromosome 9 (66 Mb) was statistically significant for piglet mortality between birth and weaning in later parity (0.44 piglets between homozygotes, <it>P</it>-value = 6.94E-08).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Three separate regions on chromosome 9 gave significant results for litter size and pig mortality. The frequencies of favourable alleles of the significant SNP are moderate in the Finnish Landrace population and these SNP are thus valuable candidates for possible marker-assisted selection.</p

Principal component and factor analytic models in international sire evaluation

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Interbull is a non-profit organization that provides internationally comparable breeding values for globalized dairy cattle breeding programmes. Due to different trait definitions and models for genetic evaluation between countries, each biological trait is treated as a different trait in each of the participating countries. This yields a genetic covariance matrix of dimension equal to the number of countries which typically involves high genetic correlations between countries. This gives rise to several problems such as over-parameterized models and increased sampling variances, if genetic (co)variance matrices are considered to be unstructured.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Principal component (PC) and factor analytic (FA) models allow highly parsimonious representations of the (co)variance matrix compared to the standard multi-trait model and have, therefore, attracted considerable interest for their potential to ease the burden of the estimation process for multiple-trait across country evaluation (MACE). This study evaluated the utility of PC and FA models to estimate variance components and to predict breeding values for MACE for protein yield. This was tested using a dataset comprising Holstein bull evaluations obtained in 2007 from 25 countries.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>In total, 19 principal components or nine factors were needed to explain the genetic variation in the test dataset. Estimates of the genetic parameters under the optimal fit were almost identical for the two approaches. Furthermore, the results were in a good agreement with those obtained from the full rank model and with those provided by Interbull. The estimation time was shortest for models fitting the optimal number of parameters and prolonged when under- or over-parameterized models were applied. Correlations between estimated breeding values (EBV) from the PC19 and PC25 were unity. With few exceptions, correlations between EBV obtained using FA and PC approaches under the optimal fit were ≥ 0.99. For both approaches, EBV correlations decreased when the optimal model and models fitting too few parameters were compared.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Genetic parameters from the PC and FA approaches were very similar when the optimal number of principal components or factors was fitted. Over-fitting increased estimation time and standard errors of the estimates but did not affect the estimates of genetic correlations or the predictions of breeding values, whereas fitting too few parameters affected bull rankings in different countries.</p

High source levels and small active space of high-pitched song in bowhead whales (Balaena mysticetus)

© The Author(s), 2012. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Public Library of Science, doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0052072.The low-frequency, powerful vocalizations of blue and fin whales may potentially be detected by conspecifics across entire ocean basins. In contrast, humpback and bowhead whales produce equally powerful, but more complex broadband vocalizations composed of higher frequencies that suffer from higher attenuation. Here we evaluate the active space of high frequency song notes of bowhead whales (Balaena mysticetus) in Western Greenland using measurements of song source levels and ambient noise. Four independent, GPS-synchronized hydrophones were deployed through holes in the ice to localize vocalizing bowhead whales, estimate source levels and measure ambient noise. The song had a mean apparent source level of 185±2 dB rms re 1 µPa @ 1 m and a high mean centroid frequency of 444±48 Hz. Using measured ambient noise levels in the area and Arctic sound spreading models, the estimated active space of these song notes is between 40 and 130 km, an order of magnitude smaller than the estimated active space of low frequency blue and fin whale songs produced at similar source levels and for similar noise conditions. We propose that bowhead whales spatially compensate for their smaller communication range through mating aggregations that co-evolved with broadband song to form a complex and dynamic acoustically mediated sexual display.This work was funded by the Oticon Foundation (grant # 08-3469 to Arctic Station, OT). OT and MC were additionally funded by AP Møller og Hustru Chastine Mc-Kinney Møllers Fond til almene Formaal, MS by a PhD scholarship from the Oticon Foundation, FHJ by a Danish Council for Independent Research, Natural Sciences post-doctoral grant, SEP by a grant from the U.S. Office of Naval Research, and PTM by frame grants from the Danish Natural Science Research Council

Parents' Experiences Discussing Pediatric Vaccination with Healthcare Providers: A Survey of Canadian Naturopathic Patients

Parents who choose to selectively vaccinate or avoid vaccination for their children may do so at risk of compromising relations with their family physician or pediatrician. Groups that are associated with reduced rates of pedicatic vaccination, such as parents who access naturopathic care, may be particularly vulnerable to this issue.In March through September 2010, we administered a 26-item cross-sectional survey to 129 adult patients, all of whom were parents with children ≤ 16 years of age, presenting for naturopathic care in Ontario, Canada. Ninety-five parents completed the survey (response rate 74%), and only 50.5% (48 of 95) reported that their children had received all recommended vaccines. Most parents (50.5%; 48 of 95) reported feeling pressure to vaccinate from their allopathic physician and, of those who discussed vaccination with their physician, 25.9% (21 of 81) were less comfortable continuing care as a result. Five percent (4 of 81) of respondents were advised by their physician that their children would be refused care if they decided against vaccination. In our adjusted generalized linear model, feeling pressure to vaccinate (odds ratio [OR] = 3.07; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.14 to 8.26) or endorsing a naturopathic physician as their most trusted source of information regarding vaccination (OR = 3.57; 95% CI = 1.22 to 10.44) were associated with greater odds of having a partially vaccinated or unvaccinated child. The majority (69.6%; 32 of 46) of parent's with partially vaccinated or unvaccinated children reported a willingness to re-consider this decision.Use of naturopathic care should be explored among parents in order to identify this high-risk group and engage them in discussion regarding pediatric vaccination to encourage evidence-based, shared decision making. Physicians should ensure that discussions regarding vaccination are respectful, even if parents are determined not to vaccinate their children

Comparison of quality of life after stereotactic body radiotherapy and surgery for early-stage prostate cancer

Background: As the long-term efficacy of stereotactic body radiation therapy (SBRT) becomes established and other prostate cancer treatment approaches are refined and improved, examination of quality of life (QOL) following prostate cancer treatment is critical in driving both patient and clinical treatment decisions. We present the first study to compare QOL after SBRT and radical prostatectomy, with QOL assessed at approximately the same times pre- and post-treatment and using the same validated QOL instrument. Methods: Patients with clinically localized prostate cancer were treated with either radical prostatectomy (n = 123 Spanish patients) or SBRT (n = 216 American patients). QOL was assessed using the Expanded Prostate Cancer Index Composite (EPIC) grouped into urinary, sexual, and bowel domains. For comparison purposes, SBRT EPIC data at baseline, 3 weeks, 5, 11, 24, and 36 months were compared to surgery data at baseline, 1, 6, 12, 24,and 36 months. Differences in patient characteristics between the two groups were assessed using Chi-squared tests for categorical variables and t-tests for continuous variables. Generalized estimating equation (GEE) models were constructed for each EPIC scale to account for correlation among repeated measures and used to assess the effect of treatment on QOL. Results: The largest differences in QOL occurred in the first 1-6 months after treatment, with larger declines following surgery in urinary and sexual QOL as compared to SBRT, and a larger decline in bowel QOL following SBRT as compared to surgery. Long-term urinary and sexual QOL declines remained clinically significantly lower for surgery patients but not for SBRT patients. Conclusions: Overall, these results may have implications for patient and physician clinical decision making which are often influenced by QOL. These differences in sexual, urinary and bowel QOL should be closely considered in selecting the right treatment, especially in evaluating the value of non-invasive treatments, such as SBRT

Statistical Guidance for Experimental Design and Data Analysis of Mutation Detection in Rare Monogenic Mendelian Diseases by Exome Sequencing

Recently, whole-genome sequencing, especially exome sequencing, has successfully led to the identification of causal mutations for rare monogenic Mendelian diseases. However, it is unclear whether this approach can be generalized and effectively applied to other Mendelian diseases with high locus heterogeneity. Moreover, the current exome sequencing approach has limitations such as false positive and false negative rates of mutation detection due to sequencing errors and other artifacts, but the impact of these limitations on experimental design has not been systematically analyzed. To address these questions, we present a statistical modeling framework to calculate the power, the probability of identifying truly disease-causing genes, under various inheritance models and experimental conditions, providing guidance for both proper experimental design and data analysis. Based on our model, we found that the exome sequencing approach is well-powered for mutation detection in recessive, but not dominant, Mendelian diseases with high locus heterogeneity. A disease gene responsible for as low as 5% of the disease population can be readily identified by sequencing just 200 unrelated patients. Based on these results, for identifying rare Mendelian disease genes, we propose that a viable approach is to combine, sequence, and analyze patients with the same disease together, leveraging the statistical framework presented in this work